Top Gear's big Formula One preview: runners, riders, and predictions for the 2025 season

Fresh off the back of a first constructors’ title in 26 years, McLaren’s goal is simple: repeat the trick, but win the drivers’ crown too. Max taught Lando some harsh lessons in ruthlessness last year. He’ll need to put them into practice, especially if Oscar turns the wick up again.

Success is… giving Zak Brown another reason to visit the tattoo parlour
Failure is… running out of ideas when flexi wings are banned

TG predicts: 2nd place

Ferrari just missed out on glory last season, so if hiring the most successful driver in F1 history doesn’t work… what will? With two bona fide megastars in the garage there’s literally no excuse this time. Unless the intern’s left in charge of strategy again. Which could very well happen.

Success is… not pitting for slicks when it’s pouring with rain
Failure is… anything less than first place with the most expensive pairing ever

TG predicts: 1st place

Max Verstappen ended 2024 with the third-fastest car, and still won title #4. Easily. Can he do it again without a head start? Hmm. He’ll need Liam Lawson – a veteran of 11 races – to do a better job than the last guy. And the chap before that. And the bloke before him…

Success is… recreating Adrian Newey’s massive brain using AI
Failure is… crushing yet another promising junior career in its infancy

TG predicts: 3rd place

For the first time ever, the works Mercedes team starts an F1 season without one of Fangio, Schumacher or Hamilton in it. Wow. Picking up the mantle of history are George Russell, yet to sample a championship-capable car, and Andrea Kimi Antonelli, yet to sample a beard. Presumably, the dude’s 18.

Success is… the W16 handling like a race car not Bambi on rollerskates
Failure is… cracking ground effect the moment F1 shelves it

TG predicts: 4th place

Aston stunned the F1 multiverse by hiring Adrian Newey, now a fully paid up employee as of March. The AMR25 won’t have his fingerprints on it yet, so the thing to watch out for is the aero updates that follow. Witness the laptimes tumble… and ‘Nando’s grin get bigger and bigger.

Success is… making a car fast enough to flatter the boss’s son
Failure is… pleading with F1’s design GOAT to stop tinkering with the Valkyrie

TG predicts: 5th place

Flavio Briatore gave Jack Doohan an early debut in Abu Dhabi, and a month later he paid off Williams to hire Franco Colapinto as Alpine’s back-up driver. Does this project confidence in the Aussie? No. Will this soothe a team still reeling from the demise of its engine programme? Also no.

Success is… going the whole year without sacking the team principal
Failure is… not making enough headlines to help flog the A290

TG predicts: 8th place

Haas punched above its weight last season, as it does every year it doesn’t finish stone dead last. Ocon is a known entity but 19 y/o Bearman is a gamble. He did alright as a Ferrari super-sub though, remember? If the design team can keep up, he might be 2025’s breakout star.

Success is… finally getting that first podium after 10 years of trying
Failure is… losing all of its American fans to Cadillac

TG predicts: 6th

What’s the point of the Red Bull junior squad these days? Every graduate since Verstappen has been chewed up and spat out by the mothership. Tsunoda still hasn’t had that, er, privilege, and Hadjar, 20, is next up. Those of you about to be promoted prematurely, we salute you.

Success is… convincing one person to say ‘Visa Cash App Racing Bulls’
Failure is… having to send an SOS to Daniel Ricciardo again

TG predicts: 9th place

Williams embarrassed itself by not having enough spares to field both cars in Australia last year, a PR nightmare that could’ve been avoided by having two drivers who could keep it on the island. With Sainz arriving from Ferrari, that wrong has been righted. Just need the FW47 to be fast(er) now.

Success is… not having to write-off a chassis every other week
Failure is… giving up to focus on the 2026 car by April

TG predicts: 7th place

Sauber is in stasis. Next year it will be Audi, but all sorts of rumours about the transition are swirling and in the meantime it can’t really fix its (many) fundamental problems. So instead it’s hired F1’s most experienced non-podium finisher and an untested F2 champion. At least things can’t get worse.

Success is… being competitive enough to not scare Audi off for 2026
Failure is… somehow scoring even fewer points than last year

TG predicts: 10th place