Formula One 2021: here's how Max Verstappen can win the title this weekend

2021 has been the longest and one of the most closely fought F1 championships of all time, but it’s entirely possible that we could see an overall winner at this weekend’s penultimate round in Saudi Arabia. Whilst Lewis Hamilton would have to wait another week before taking the title in Abu Dhabi on 12 December, Max Verstappen can wrap it up this Sunday if things go his way.

Max leads Lewis by eight points with two rounds remaining, and F1 rewards the top ten finishers in each race as follows: 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1 plus a bonus point for fastest lap. For Max to win the championship this weekend, he needs to finish first or second and hope that Lewis has a poor race. These are the scenarios that would see Max crowned in Saudi Arabia:

• Verstappen 1st + fastest lap, Hamilton 6th or lower
• Verstappen 1st, Hamilton 7th or lower
• Verstappen 2nd + fastest lap, Hamilton 10th or lower
• Verstappen 2nd, Hamilton 11th or lower

Any of those scenarios are of course entirely possible, but on recent form one would have to say it’s more likely that Lewis will still be in the hunt after the weekend given that he and Max have occupied the top two steps of the podium at five of the last six races.

Less than a month ago though, things looked very different. After the Mexican Grand Prix on 7 November, the Red Bull appeared to be the car to have and having won the previous two rounds, Max led Lewis by 19 points. But since an engine change for Lewis in Brazil the tables have turned, and Hamilton/Mercedes now looks to be the quickest combination out there.

It’s unthinkable that barring any problems Lewis will finish outside the top two and if he were to win and take fastest lap with Max in second, they’d both go to Abu Dhabi on an identical 369.5 points. That sounds like an entirely plausible scenario and would set things up enticingly for a winner takes all showdown a week later.

With so much to play for, the teams and drivers won’t be helped by the number of unknowns they face this weekend. The Jeddah Corniche Circuit is brand new, so the teams have no meaningful data ahead of the race and the fresh tarmac is likely to make it a low-grip circuit. At 3.8 miles it’s the second longest track on the calendar after Spa and with an expected average lap time of 155 mph+ it’s also one of the fastest.

Given that it’s a street circuit and a night race it’ll be quite a challenge. And whilst most tracks have one DRS zone, and some have two, subject to FIA approval there could be three this weekend, so expect some overtaking. In short, it’s a crucial race for the championship that’ll be held on a track potentially faster than Silverstone but with minimal run-off and in the dark. It’ll be well worth a watch.

Qualifying is at 5.00pm on Saturday and the race at 5.30pm on Sunday UK time.