F1: how can Hamilton take the title in Austin? Here’s the maths

With nine wins, thirteen podiums and 302 points to his name so far this season, Lewis Hamilton is on the cusp of claiming a third world championship to add to his triumphs in 2008 and 2014.

Teammate Nico Rosberg and Ferrari driver Sebastian Vettel are mathematically still in with a chance of beating Lewis to the title, though in reality the 30-year-old is all but certain to win with his 66 point cushion at the top, even if he doesn’t put things to bed in Texas.

His chances have also been boosted by the news that Seb will take a ten-place grid penalty after qualifying on Saturday for using his fifth engine of the year; one more than is permitted under current regulations.

The equation for Sunday is simple: Hamilton needs to beat Vettel and Rosberg by nine points and two points respectively in order to clinch the championship with three grands prix to spare.

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But with ten scoring positions on the grid, the numbers vary and the permutations are many. Here’s how it all adds up…

If Hamilton finishes first

Then the world championship is in the bag, unless Vettel finishes second.

If Hamilton finishes second

Lewis will win the title if Vettel is no higher than sixth, and Rosberg comes third or lower.

If Hamilton finishes third

If Vettel is seventh or worse, and Rosberg classified no higher than fourth, Lewis is champion again.

If Hamilton finishes fourth

The celebrations will begin at Mercedes if Vettel is ninth or lower, and Rosberg no higher than fifth.

If Hamilton finishes fifth

Lewis can edge over the line if Vettel is tenth, and Rosberg behind him in sixth.

If Hamilton finishes sixth or lower

Then he can no longer win the title in the States even if Vettel fails to score points. Rosberg could still be knocked out of contention though.

All this maths, of course, relies on the assumption that Bernie won’t introduce, say, quadruple points for the final race in Abu Dhabi next month, in a last-minute attempt to ‘spice things up’.

In the otherwise-extremely-unlikely event that there is a tie for the championship at the end of the year, the FIA has guidelines in its 2015 Sporting Regulations for deciding who should come out on top.

Article 7.2 states that the driver with the most wins (which will be Hamilton this season regardless of who claims the four remaining chequered flags) will prevail, followed by the most second and third places until a victor emerges.

Interestingly, the rules also say that if the above “procedure fails to produce a result, the FIA will nominate a winner according to such criteria as it thinks fit.”

Most poles? Best overtakes? Funniest team radio message? Now that would be a finale...